Here is your college football advanced stats guide with definitions to understand what these stats are and why they are important in college football.
EPA: Expected Points Added
EPA is a per play stat that measures the points added (or lost) in a given play compared to the expected value. It accounts for the expected points for the remainder of the current drive and the opponents next drive. It accounts for the down, distance, and yard line. Example: If a team starts a play at 1st-and-10 from the opponent’s 20-yard line with an EP (Expected Points) of 3.5 points and gains 15 yards (moving them to 1st-and-goal at the 5-yard line, with an EP of 5.5 points), the play would add 2.0 expected points. So the EPA for that play is 2.0.
Success Rate
There are other ways to calculate success rate relative to down and distance, but I find that the best way to calculate success rate is when the EPA of a play is greater than 0. However, there is another way to calculate it:
- If a play gains 50% of the yards needed on 1st down.
- If a play gains 70% of the yards needed on 2nd down.
- If a play gains 100% of the yards needed on 3rd and 4th down.
Standard Downs
First downs, 2nd and 6 or fewer, 3rd/4th down and 4 or fewer. The higher the success rate on these downs, the more your offense is on schedule.
Passing Downs
2nd and 7 or greater, 3rd/4th down and 5 or more.
Line Yards
Offensive Line Yards (OLY) and Defensive Line Yards (DLY) is an advanced stat that measures the effectiveness of both of the offensive and defensive line. The higher the number, the better it is for the offensive side and the defensive side requires a lower number to be more effective. The formula comes from the former website Football Outsiders:
- 0-3 yards: Full credit to the offensive line (i.e., 100% of the yardage is attributed to the line)
- 4-10 yards: 50% credit to the offensive line
- 11+ yards: Minimal or no credit to the offensive line (typically capped at around 10 yards) and all credit goes to the running back as a highlight opportunity.
- Less than 0 yards: 120% goes to the offensive line (basically the OL didn’t do their job).
Sack Rate
Sack Rate is the percentage of sacks per pass attempt. The higher the number, the better for the defense and the offense wants a lower number.
Stuff Rate
Stuff Rate is the percentage of carries that are stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage. The higher the number, the better for the defense and the offense wants a lower number.
Power Success Rate
The percentage of runs on third and fourth down with two yards or less to go that achieved a first down or a touchdown. It also includes runs on 1st and goal or second and goal with two yards or less to go to score.
Opportunity Rate (Rushing)
The percentage of carries that gain at least four yards or more (when available).
Explosiveness
Explosiveness is a subjective stat. The way I measure it is I take the EPA of running plays that are greater than 12 yards and passing plays greater than 16 yards. It is one of the “Five Factors of Football” by ESPN’s Bill Connelly.
Havoc Rate
The percentage of plays where the defense records a tackle for loss, a deflection, forced a fumble, or intercepted a pass.
Post Game Win Expectancy (PGWE)
Another subjective stat in how it is calculated. It is a measure of which how likely a team was to win a game based on their performance in a game. For example, if a team won in a thriller, but the PGWE shows they had a 10% chance to win the game based on key stats in the game, that means they played poorly and found a way to win. If a team had a 90% win PGWE and lost, that means they had an unlucky bounce and usually a team wins that game 9/10 teams based on the accumulated stats in the game.
Garbage Time
Basically when the game is put on ice. When the scoring margin is greater than 43 in the 1st quarter, 37 in the second quarter, 27 in the third quarter, and 22 in the fourth quarter.
Scoring Rate & Points Per Opportunity
Scoring Rate is the number of times a team gets to the opponents 40 yard line. Generally speaking, when a team advances that far on the football field, it is considered scoring territory. The higher the number, the greater the chances you have at putting the ball in the endzone or kicking a field goal. Or if a team scores a touchdown from outside the 40 yard line, that counts as a scoring opportunity.
Points Per Opportunity is the average number of points a team scores based on the number of opportunities they get in a game. For example, if a team scores 24 points and had seven scoring opportunities in a game, then the math is 24 divided by 7 = 3.43 points per scoring opportunity. The higher the number, the more efficient you are at finishing drives.
FEI
The Fremeau Efficiency Index made by Brian Fremeau. It is a college football rating system based on opponent adjusted possession efficiency in non garbage time possessions.
SP+
Bill Connelly’s power ratings determined by play-by-play and drive efficiency.
F/+
The combination of both Bill Connelly’s SP+ and Brian Fremeau’s FEI Rating.
Geek Rating
The power rating developed by the person who runs the website.