It’s that time of the year again. The CFP Playoff Rankings where ESPN will push out their narratives to get viewership. After following Dave Bartoo (@CFBMatrix), I’ve had an understanding of how the Playoff Committee (or pocomm for short) ranks the CFP Top 25. It is a set of rules that were determined 11 years ago when the playoff was first announced.
This is what they committee uses. Wins and losses are self explanatory. Quality wins are wins over a team with a winning record above .500. Bad losses are losses against a team with a below .500 record. Top 25 wins (wins against CFP Top 25 teams). Game Control, which is a fancy way of saying “Margin of Victory”. Strength of Schedule which is the BCS Formula and not the formula that ESPN uses and the Conference Champion which is huge for this year because that determines the first four byes and the G5 rep.
Projected Top 25
Oregon is the clear #1. Head and shoulders above everyone else. Ohio State, UGA, Texas, and Miami rounds out the Top 5. Where Miami is in regard to where Texas is at is irrelevant because Miami is the ACC rep so based on their standings in the conference, they’re projected to get a first round bye. Notre Dame, Penn State, Tennessee, BYU, and Indiana round out the Top 10. I see Penn State and Tennessee flip flopping with each other. Indiana is an interesting case because of their dreadful strength of schedule they don’t have a ton of quality wins (just two) and the only Top 25 team they will face is Ohio State in a few weeks. That Game Control however……*chef’s kiss*.
Boise, SMU, Bama, Iowa State, and LSU round out 11 through 15. Boise being at 11 means they’re locked in and SMU gets the nod over Bama. Since the G5 rep is in the Top 12, the 12 team playoff is chalk going 1-12:
First Round (High seed hosting on campus)
5/12: Ohio State vs Boise State
8/9: Penn State vs Tennessee
6/11: Texas vs SMU
7/10: Notre Dame vs Indiana
First two out: #13 Alabama and #14 Iowa State