This is the first of a series of write ups where I go into an analytics deep dive of certain matchups. To understand what some of these stats mean, there is a primer here for you to better understand what some of these stats mean and how they are important in football. Usually I will post these whenever I’m having an issue with Adobe Premier Pro and I can’t post on the channel. So, let us begin.
Tale of the Tape
So……when you look at this, Ohio State is pretty good. The Bucks are considered the #1 team in the country in the respected power ratings and they hold the best rated defense in my power rating. However the Ducks are no slouch and this will be the best offense the Buckeyes will face this season so far.
Matchups
When Oregon Has the Ball
What do we take from this when Oregon has the ball against Ohio State’s defense? Simple, the Ducks got a tough day ahead of them. I know, I know, “Ohio State hasn’t played anybody!” and that is a true statement. They haven’t been fully tested yet, but if they struggled to stop Marshall, Western Michigan, Iowa (who is actually improved offensively), Akron, and Michigan State, we’d have a lot of questions to ask about their defense. The fact that they’re beating the crap of bad teams does say a lot in my opinion. For Oregon, they’re going to lean on their offensive line to move the Ohio State DL since they want to run the ball. The Oregon OL has a decent advantage here with their Stuff Rate and Offensive Line Yardage, but the Buckeyes have a Top 10 rush defensive unit, so something has to give here. Now Oregon is elite at generating scoring opportunities, but merely good at converting them into points (34th in Offensive Points Per Scoring Opportunity). They can’t leave points on the board against this Buckeye defense that is #1 in both Defensive Scoring Rate and Defensive Points Per Opportunity.
When Ohio State Has the Ball
As evidenced by the run/pass splits, Ohio State likes to stay balanced on offense and frankly, they’re good at it. They’re ranked in the Top 20 in both Rushing and Passing EPA per game. This will be the second rushing attack that is ranked in the Top 10 that Oregon will face this year (the other was Boise State) and Ashton Jeanty had a ball game against the Ducks run defense running for 192 yards on 25 carries. It’s worth noting that Boise didn’t have a passing threat in the game as the Broncos threw for 148 yards. The only advantage the Ducks defense has over the Buckeye offense is their ability to limit explosive plays as they are ranked 23rd in Defensive Explosiveness.
Model Projection
The model has Ohio State winning by a score of 28-24 with a 64% win probability. At the time of the breakdown, Vegas has Bucks favored by 3 on the road.